Did NH Have a Problem With Its Voting Machines?

Lots of theories are being floated as to why there was such a discrepancy between poll numbers and actual results in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. One person has been crunching numbers and thinks there may have been a problem with the Diebold machines.

To my complete (and continuing) amazement, the "diebold effect" on Hillary's votes remains after controlling for any and all of those demographic variables, with a p-value of <.001: that is, there are less than 1:1000 odds for this difference occurring through chance alone, and that's after adjusting for variability in Hillary's votes due to education, income, total population, and population density.

I'm a big proponent of technology especially if it can improve something, however there are times where there cannot be a margin of error. Electing officials is too important for mistakes to occur in the counting of votes. It may not have happened here. Chris is getting feedback from some more knowledgable statisticians. I do think that voting machines need to have paper trails for now until they have a proven track record.

Babysitting Dad

It's not something you typically expect to have to do, but, hey, what's life without the occasional banana peel?

My brother, Shawn, and I took our dad out last night. We try to do it every couple of months at least. We shoot some pool, have some drinks (well, they do, anyway) and just try to have some fun. Last night proved to be more, uh, interesting than usual. When Shawn and I went to pick up Dad at about a quarter to seven, we saw that he had already started drinking despite the fact that Shawn told him to not have any drinks until we went out. Dad has never been able to hold his liquor and we didn't want him falling down drunk an hour after we left.

We went to a local bar and it seemed like it was going to be just a normal night. We played a few games. Shawn kicked both our asses at pool since he plays quite a bit. A few hours roll by. I'm thinking it's about time to call it a night because I'm feeling tired and I have to work in the morning. Dad looks ready to fall asleep. Then they came over.

There had been two girls playing at a table next to us. One of them, Kelly, came over and started talking to Shawn. She thought she recognized him and she said his name sounded familiar. After playing question and answer, she remembers that she knows our sister, Sharie. They did not go to school together, but met through some guys they knew. She brought the other girl over, her sister, Jessica, and introductions were had. Shawn asked them if they wanted to play doubles and they agreed to after they finished their doubles game with another pair of guys.

A few minutes later they came over. And Dad came to life. Now, my dad is charming, lady-killer when he's sober. When he's drunk, he's over the top. Suddenly there are two twenty-something girls at our table and turns his charm up to 11. Before I know it, he's smacking one on the butt, calling them endearments, telling dirty jokes, blowing kisses, and so on. Of course, the whole time he's smiling and laughing and clearly having a good time. He's 71 years old. My brother and I are apologizing to the girls, but they just laugh and say he's cute. Yeah, cute, because he's 71 freakin' years old! If I was acting like that I would have been slapped and thrown out by the bouncer.

I tried cutting Dad off a couple of times, but if I turned my back for a second, he managed to get himself another drink. I went through the rest of the night red-faced. I told Kelly at one point that I might have to have the "son-father talk" and I wasn't looking forward to it. Finally, about eleven-thirty everybody was getting tired and Dad was nearly falling-down drunk. He said he had to go to the bathroom. When I asked him if he could get there okay, Jessica offered to walk him there. I groaned and rolled my eyes. They both said over and over that they didn't mind him at all and thought he was "hilarious," "cool," "a hoot," and an assortment of other complimentary terms. I was thinking more "drunken, dirty old man," but, you know, different perspectives and all that.

Kelly said that she and her sister had fun and wanted to exchange numbers so that we could all hang out again some time. My brother and I dragged Dad out as soon as he got out of the bathroom. After we dropped our dad off, I told Shawn that if she calls, she's probably going to ask, "Is your dad coming?" and insist that he does. It is funny, but more so in retrospect. For most of the night I just felt embarrassed.

I suppose the other somewhat amusing anecdote unrelated to my father was shortly after Kelly and Jessica came over to our table. About the only words out of my mouth so far have been, "Hi, I'm Shane." I'm not the gregarious social animal my father is, far from it. I'm wearing jeans and a t-shirt that says "I do all my own stunts." I'm fairly clean-cut, no strange tats or funky hair-do. Kelly pipes up and says, "So, are you one those, uhm, Dungeons and Dragons guys." A brief moment of silence passes as I think, what the hell? Nodding, I say, "Uh, yeah. I didn't think I had a sign on declaring it." "You just look like it," she says.

I didn't realize we D&D players had a "look." A little dorky or maybe average looking is what would come to mind if I had to describe myself, but I'm not sure my first thought if I saw me on the street would be "Roleplayer." I would have expected someone to hear me talk a little bit before they figured it out. Not that I'm embarrassed about it. I enjoy it and could care less what anyone else thinks about it. I just don't expect it to be the first question from someone who has just met me.

Music Likes

Messing around with iTunes a few weeks ago, I came across a feature called MyTunes. Apple has some code for a couple of widgets that allow you to display recent purchases and "favorites" (artists you've purchased) from their store. Being a big music fan, I thought I might add them to my page just for the hell of it.

It is not a comprehensive look at the music on my computer as any physical CDs I purchase are not listed. It's kind of cool, though, so check it out. And feel free to mock me for anything such as Whitney Houston or Josh Groban that you see floating across the screen. They're balanced by Metallica, Slayer, Priest, Iced Earth, and so on.

But you can still make fun of me.

Batshiat Crazy

My good friend, Jeromy, sent me a link to this video. It reminded him of someone and I had the same thought when I watched it. This lady sounds like my ex-wife.



Besides my ex, this video brought a few other things to mind:

A true "dark-sider" if ever there was one.


A thought on being crazy.
David Mills (Brad Pitt) in Se7en talking to John Doe (Kevin Spacey). "I've been trying to figure something in my head, and maybe you can help me out, yeah? When a person is insane, as you clearly are, do you know that you're insane? Maybe you're just sitting around, reading "Guns and Ammo", masturbating in your own feces, do you just stop and go, 'Wow! It is amazing how fucking crazy I really am!'? Yeah. Do you guys do that?"

Scandal's awesome song, "The Warrior."


A picture worth at least 997 words.


I know what I am going to say a prayer of thanksgiving for tonight.

Weekly Music Video

One of my favorite songs ever: "Just Like Heaven" by The Cure.

I'm a Warlock

One of the teachers at my daughter's private school is the cousin (or some such) of one of my sister's friends. She told my sister recently that my ex-wife told her that I am a warlock. Yes, she said this in all seriousness and honestly believes that I am an Satan-worshipping, magic-using, force of evil. I have to admit that it would be really cool to be that, but, alas, I am not.

Weekly Secret

An amusing one this week.



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The Journey to the White House is Just Starting

The National Journal has an excellent piece examining the current state of the presidential race. Bottom line? "This could go on awhile."

Combined with the outcomes of the Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire results leave the parties confronting similar situations. Each side faces the prospect of an extended nomination fight between candidates who have established clear demographic strongholds, but have not yet demonstrated enough strength to dislodge their opponents from their strongholds or to unite all the divergent elements of their party's coalition.

This has certainly been a fascinating election year. I can't wait to find out what the outcome will be.

Isn't Texas Great?

A Texas school wants to offer a degree in "Science Education" (read: Creationism). Now, if only there was some science behind creationism (the literal kind, i.e. the world was created in six 24-hour days 6000 years ago). Bah, who needs science? It's obviously a tool of Satan used to steal our souls!.

Great Expectations

Time has a sobering assessment of Bush's recent efforts in the Isreali/Palestinian peace process.

Bush capped the two days of talks Thursday evening with a restatement of U.S. goals for a peace deal as well as encouragement for both sides to pursue talks. But if it hasn't been already obvious, Bush's trip to Israel and the West Bank this week has made one thing abundantly clear: the Israelis and Palestinians aren't making peace anytime soon. Israel is as resistant to basic peace process concessions as it has always been and the Palestinians are alternately weak or violent, depending on which part of their territory you look at.

Perhaps I'm cynical (I am) and perhaps I am highly critical of Bush (I am, but it's not like he hasn't asked for it), but his current push for settling this conflict comes off as a half-hearted attempt to salvage some sort of legacy for his presidency. I don't think he's even put a whole lot of thought into this beyond "You know, it seems like them Israelis and Palestinians should get along. I bet if I sit them down together, they can work this little misunderstanding out."

This conflict has been going on decades. A half-hearted attempt by a President in his last year of office who has lost all credibility in the Middle East is not going to work. Sad but true.

Who Wants to Be Invisible?

Scientists are getting closer to making invisibility a reality. As cool as this is (and oh so ripe for abuse), though, my preferred super-power is flight. When is someone going to get me my own personal flying device?

Early Birthday Gifts

My birthday is not until tomorrow, but I have received a few gifts already. Yesterday, my co-worker, Brenda (or my "work-mom" as she calls herself), gave me Star Trek V and VI to round out my collection of the original series films. She said she wanted to wait until my birthday, but she saw I has having a bad day at work and thought I could use the pick-me-up. Brenda is also the type of person that has trouble waiting for something like this because she gets so excited. One of my tail lights was out in my vehicle and Brenda also had her son fix it for me.

Today, my mother took me to the bookstore (okay, I took her) and let me pick out a few books. She is very traditional and did not want to do it this way, but she hasn't had a chance to get a ride from anyone else, so it was up to me. I picked out The Thousandfold Thought by R. Scott Bakker, the third in his Prince of Nothing trilogy. I haven't read the first two, yet, though they have received rave reviews. I also picked up Chronicles of the Black Company by Glen Cook which collects the first trilogy of his Black Company novels. I have been wanting to read these for a long time and now I don't have an excuse not to.

Anyway, a big thank you to Brenda and Mom for my gifts. They are much appreciated.

People Are "Doing It"

A fascinating new study points to the liklihood of this happening right now somewhere, maybe even nearby.

Religion Fact of the Day

Belief in the Trinity as most Christians currently know it was not always so clear cut. Arius was a Christian pries in Egypt in the late 3rd/early 4th centuries. He stirred up a lot of controversy by claiming that Jesus did not exist from the beginning with God, but was created later and by implication less than the Father. Athanasius was the major opponent of Arianism as it became called. The Council of Nicaea in 325 was an attempt to resolve this dispute, but the wording of the Nicene Creed, specifically the word homoousios ("same essence"), only served to inflame the conflict. It wasn't until 381 when the creed was rewritten that the dispute was settled with Arianism losing out.

New Hampshire Makes Things Interesting

In stark contrast to all of the polls from the last few days, Clinton eked out a narrow victory over Obama in the Granite State. After looking very emotional and tired over the last few days, I'm sure this will invigorate Clinton. We'll see how things fall out, but I still don't think Clinton will go all the way.

On the Republican side, things become more confusing as McCain gets a solid victory. This looks to be shaping up as a Huckabee/McCain battle. Romney and Guiliani are fading in the polls. Thompson seems to have lost any ground he gained with his late-inning entry. That said, while the Democratic front-runners are clear, it is much murkier for the GOP. It could go anyway at this point and that seems to point to confusion within the party for the direction they need to go and to disillusionment with any of the choices this year.

An interesting year for politics to say the least.

Girls' Self Image

This is the sort of thing I worry about with my youngest daughter.

[Girls] who believed they were unpopular gained more weight over a two-year period than girls who viewed themselves as more popular. Researchers said the study showed how a girl's view of her social status has broader health consequences.

Shaena is such a sweet girl, but her self-esteem is in the gutter. She thinks she's worthless and not as smart or beautiful as her sister. I try to boost her up, but it's so hard especially when her home environment is so negative. She needs to get away from that and she needs some positive female role-models in her life. I need to do more for her.

Why Campaign Coverage Sucks

Chris Hayes, editor of The Nation, explains why media coverage of political campaigns is typically poor and offers some solutions including this one:

2) Go more for features and less daily reporting. The Times has been doing this, though, their feature coverage has tended to focused on such burning issues as what Hillary Clinton wrote in letters to a penpal 35 years ago. But it also produced an excellent piece about Giuliani’s fraught relationship with New York City’s black residents. These kind of longer-form, non-deadline pieces are fun to read, and far, far more informative than the daily dispatch.

I think this could be extended to many news stories and not just campaign coverage. The 24-hour, instant gratification news cycle is tearing our media apart.

Religion Fact of the Day

The Southern Baptist Convention is the second largest Christian denomination (next to Roman Catholic) in the United States. It was founded in 1845 in Georgia in part as a reaction against other Baptist movements denouncing slavery. It was not until 1995 that the SBC formally renounced its racist origins.

Weekly Music Video

How about a little 90s flashback with the Pet Shop Boys and their cover of "Go West."

Weekly Secret

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